Friday, August 2, 2013

W4 - Important Skills for Scenario Planning

In his video on scenario planning, Oliver Freeman states that the three most important skills for scenario planners are first, the ability to assimilate/synthesise a variety of input on the issues or influences affecting an organisation. Second, they need to have the ability to "suspend disbelief" and be open minded when it comes to imagining futures. Third, they need to be able to see the importance of the "experiential learning" and how the process of scenario planning is just as, if not more important than the outcome of the plan.

L. Marines and K. Newcombe state that scenarios should be as objective as possible and "scenario planners should be alert for their own biases and emotional predilections."

Though I feel I still have much to learn and understand about scenario planning, if I had to sum up the three most important skills for scenario planners, I would choose these:

1. Open-mindedness and ability to be objective when looking at possible futures
2. Appreciation of the journey of scenario planning being more important than the destination
3. Ability to include viewpoints from many different players, including those outside the organisation

I can see how scenario planning would be a challenging endeavour for some, as it takes on a very artistic approach. As a musician and music teacher, I appreciate anything artistic or creative/imaginative, and think that this type of approach mirrors our humanity much more realistically. Some people are very afraid of the unpredictable and so an approach that allows them to predict and give them a seeming sense of control would be more attractive than SP, which would force them to accept the inherent unpredictability of our world.


Sources: 

Freeman, O. (2009). Scenario planning. Retrieved from http://www.business21c.com.au/channels/strategytube/posts/2009/09/scenario-planning

Marines, L. & Newcombe, K. (2009). Managing uncertainty through strategic thinking. FMI Quarterly, (1), 62-71

2 comments:

  1. Hi Sarah,
    I think you are right that the appreciation of the journey is so important... I know in my workplace some people can sink into this phase more than others... your post is really bringing home to me how challenging using the scenario planning approach really is. Thanks.

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  2. Sarah
    I like your summary below

    1. Open-mindedness and ability to be objective when looking at possible futures
    2. Appreciation of the journey of scenario planning being more important than the destination
    3. Ability to include viewpoints from many different players, including those outside the organisation

    as it speaks to me of objectivity, process and diversity and i think these are great things to base a life a school and a nation on. I think different personality types, paradigms and life stages would adapt better to these conditions than others - for my school's scenario planning i will include some scientists, musicians, artists, technologists and historians but pay particular attention to the dynamics of a wide range of personality types and most importantly students from diverse areas, interests and nationalities to get the best possible mix and the widest coverage,

    ps love your Kombi van with canoe on top in front of the wide open sea blog backdrop too #SP4Ed

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