I think that, based on the Shell scenario planning and DHL's proposals, it seems that scenario planning is something that every organisation would benefit from doing at least once. I think the advantages are obvious: that your business (and most importantly, the people involved) are prepared for multiple futures, which gives the organisation more confidence and flexibility in moving forward.
The disadvantages are that it may be difficult for the people involved to open up enough in order to benefit from the process of scenario planning (or change a plan already in place). Further, if people end up getting attached to (or hopeful for) one of the scenarios in particular, the organisation might inadvertently plan for that future, narrowing their planning even further.
I think scenario planning, or some form of it, should be deemed crucial for all levels of education - especially nowadays, when technology is evolving so quickly. Perhaps if we embraced more of the successful practices that businesses utilise, education would be more flexible as a professional organisation.
I keep hearing people talk the need for a revolution in education, and I couldn't agree more - but I think it is frightening to plan any revolution when you don't know what the future might bring. Will there be unrest and disorganisation, as there often is after a revolution? If we could plan for multiple futures - envisioning where we want education to go (and where we fear it is heading) with an open mind and consider all the factors in our "arena" that might affect those futures - we could move forward more confidently and more unified as educational professionals.
I hope to continue to gain knowledge and understanding about scenario planning and specifically, how it relates to education. I would also be interested in any scenario planning that has been done for education in the past. Overall, I want to explore how scenario planning could relate to my context (Moodle and independent learning) and use it as part of the "lense" of change for my assignments.